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The site says she provides spill and risk analysis to government regulators, nonprofits and industry groups. Posner reviewed the scope of work outlined for the spill risk analysis.

“We put together the best analysis we could with limited sources of information,” he said. We’re looking for input from the public on how we can make it better.” Spokane ‘a more perilous situation’ The “worst case” scenario developed for the risk assessment has also drawn criticism.

Bakken Crude, Bridge safety, Broken rail, Crude By Rail, Derailment, Environmental review, Explosion, Fire, High Hazard Flammable Trains (HHFTs), Hospitals, Oil spill, Risk Assessment, Schools, Tar sands crude, Train length, Train weight The chance of an oil train derailing and dumping its cargo between Spokane and a new terminal proposed for Vancouver, Washington, is extremely low, according to a risk assessment prepared for state officials.

Such a derailment would probably occur only once every 12 years, and in the most likely scenario, only half a tank car of oil would be spilled, according to the report.

“The only way that you can get anything that’s even partly respectable in a quantitative risk assessment is if you have a full set of relevant data.” To look at accident rates for freight trains, and assume you can draw credible comparisons for oil trains, is “very chancy,” he said.

“Unit trains of crude oil are a much different animal…They’re very long and heavy, that makes them hard to handle.

Dagmar Schmidt Etkin, president of Environmental Research Consulting, declined to answer questions about the risk assessment.

Calls to Main Line Management, which is working under Schmidt Etkin, were not returned.

Probability research is “a shaky science” to begin with, said Millar, who is a consultant for Earthjustice, an environmental law firm opposed to the terminal.A spill risk assessment was part of the project’s draft environmental impact statement, which was released late last month. The company has also done work for the Port of Vancouver, where the terminal would be located.The risk analysis assumes the trains would make a 1,000-mile loop through the state.Oil trains roll through downtown Spokane on elevated bridges, in close proximity to schools, hospitals, apartments and work places.In recent years, the bridges have seen an increase in both coal and oil train traffic, Krogh said. 1 cause of derailments is broken tracks, and the No. “We can talk about national figures, but when you talk about Spokane as a rail funnel for the Northwest, you have a more perilous situation based on the large number of heavy trains.” Elevated rail bridges pose an added risk for communities, said Millar, the Earthjustice consultant.

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